Брза процјена БДП-а у задњем кварталу 2023. године и инфлације у кратком року

Key notes

CBBH projects the annual growth of real economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2023 at 1.7%, which is 0.3 basis points higher than the December projection. The correction is, in part, a consequence of the revision of official historical data, but also of the growth of activities in the service sector.
We expect stagnation of economic activity in the first quarter of the current year, as well.
We estimate an annual inflation rate of 2.4% in the first quarter of 2024. According to preliminary estimates, we expect a slight strengthening of inflationary pressures by the end of the first half of the year.
We estimate that core inflation could amount to 4.7% in the first quarter of 2024. The availability of official price weights for 2023 resulted in the revision of core inflation in 2023 to the level of 6.5% (5.9% in the previous press release).

Nowcast of GDP in the last quarter of 2023 and the inflation in the short termin