Inflation for the First Half of the Year 11%, to Slow Down in the End of the Year 7/26/2022 Tweet The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) has revised upwards the inflation nowcasting for the first half of 2022, compared to the expectations from March. On the basis of available official data for May 2022, and available information by mid July, the CBBH nowcasts the inflation for the first half of 2022 to be at the level of 11% (Table 1). The latest estimates for the first half of the year are higher compared to the previous central nowcast, as trends in international markets of food, oil and gas exceeded the expectations from March. Tabela 1 The annual inflation for the third quarter is nowcasted at 13.9%, and that for the period of the first nine months of 2022 at 12% (Table 1). The slowdown of inflation is expected to take place in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the base effect from 2021, the effects of the already changed and announced monetary policies of the leading central banks, assuming absence of further growth of food and energy prices. The central nowcast is the value considered by the CBBH to be the most likely one. Extreme nowcast is possible is inflation pressures additionally increase either due to further disturbances in international markets, obstacles in distribution chains, or due to domestic price shocks which are not related to price trends in international markets.
