Nowcast of GDP in the third quarter of 2024 and short-term inflation 12/23/2024 Tweet Nowcast of GDP in the third quarter of 2024 and short-term inflation Key messages The CBBH estimates the annual growth of real economic activity in the third quarter of 2024 at 2.3%, which is identical to the September estimate. The growth of service sector mainly contributed to the economic activity growth, having in mind that indicators such as industrial production and exports of goods recorded a cumulative decline during the first ten months of this year. The preliminary estimate of the real GDP annual growth for the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.1%, based on expected low demand from foreign countries and the flood effect. We estimate that the headline inflation could amount to 1.5%, and core inflation to 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024. According to preliminary estimates, excluding unpredicted price shocks, we expect a slow increase of inflation pressures in the first quarter of 2025 and the annual inflation of 1.8%. The increase of electric energy and transport prices may bring about chain-like increases of services and consumer good prices, which is the reason why inflation projections could be revised upwards. Our estimates of economic activity and inflation in short-term period are consistent with the projections for 2024 from the autumn round of medium term macroeconomic projections.
