The CBBH publishes the estimate of core inflation and inflation in the services sector for May 2025

On the basis of the available, official statistics for consumer price indices in BH, and the associated weights, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) has estimated (LINK) the annual core inflation for the first five months of 2025 at 4.18%. The annual growth of average consumer prices in the services sector is estimated at 4.66%.

Monthly changes in the levels of headline and estimated core inflation and inflation in the sector of services are rather equal, indicating that the increases of electric energy prices and minimum wage had inflation effect, particularly in service activities. Due to a lower sum of weights in core inflation, compared to headline inflation, the inflation change for the period is less visible (Graph 1). The CBBH estimate of core inflation on the basis of official statistics does not differ significantly from our estimate from the June round of core inflation nowcast. Relying on a very limited number of official data, in June, we made a model based estimate of core inflation for the first five months at just 4 bp below the value which we estimate now on the basis of the official statistics.

Grafikon 1: Inflacija u BiH, period na period