The CBBH publishes estimates of core inflation and inflation in the sector of services for July 2025

On the basis of the available official statistics for consumer price indices in BH, and the relevant weights, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) has estimated (LINK) annual core inflation, for the first seven months of 2025, at 4.32%. The annual growth of average consumer prices in the sector of services has been estimated at 4.80%.

In July, inflation pressures increased in average consumer prices in the sector of services, and other price categories included in the core inflation calculation (Graph 1). The CBBH estimate of core inflation on the basis of official statistics does not significantly differ from our estimate from the June round of core inflation nowcast. Relying on a quite limited number of official data, in June, we made a model- based estimate of core inflation for the first seven months at 23 bp below the value which we estimate at the moment on the basis of official statistics. Although deviations from short-term model-based estimates in comparison to the estimates based on official statistics are negligible in circumstances of a series of inflation pressures from the local environment, and the model estimate trend precisely projects the future trend of estimates based on official data, constantly lower estimates may indicate a slight model underestimation of the effects of nominal wage growth on core inflation and inflation in the sector of services.

Graph 1: Inflation in BH, period to period

Source: BHAS, CBBH