Nowcast of GDP for the second and third quarters of 2025 and inflation in the short-term period 9/29/2025 Tweet Nowcast of GDP for the second and third quarters of 2025 and inflation in short-term period - PDF Key points: The CBBH estimates the annual growth of real economic activity in the second quarter of 2025 at 1.9%, which is lower by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous round of nowcast. The GDP growth outlook has been revised downwards, compared to the previous round of nowcast, as a result of lower than estimated levels of activity in industrial production, stagnating tourism activity, stronger inflation pressure, and partly also due to the official data published for the first quarter of this year. The stagnation of activity in the service sector, especially tourism, in addition to the low level of the industrial sector activity, indicates that economic activity in the third quarter could remain relatively modest. Our first preliminary estimate of real GDP growth in the third quarter is 2.0%. We estimate headline inflation in the third quarter of 2025 at 4.3% and core inflation at 4.6%. Headline inflation has been revised significantly upwards (1.3 percentage points) compared to the June nowcast, due to a strong growth of food prices, additional increase of electric energy prices for domestic customers, and a stronger than expected effect of the minimum wage increase on wages in all activities, and prices in most categories. The growth of domestic prices is significantly impacted by factors from the domestic environment, such as the increasing prices of services. In the current circumstances, we expect inflation to slow down gradually in the short term. Nevertheless, inflation pressures will remain significant until the end of the year. Our preliminary estimate of headline inflation in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 3.9% and that of core inflation is 4.6%.
