The GDP Nowcast for the Third and Fourth Quarters of 2025 and the Inflation in the Short Term 12/31/2025 Tweet The GDP Nowcast for the Third and Fourth Quarters of 2025 and the Inflation in the Short Term Key points: • The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina estimates the growth of real economic activity in the third quarter of 2025 at 1.9%, which is almost identical to the nowcast from September (2.0%). • The preliminary estimate of the annual growth rate of real GDP for the last quarter of the current year is 2.1%, and is based primarily on activities in the service sector, with a limited contribution from manufacturing activities. • In the fourth quarter of 2025, we estimate headline inflation at 4.2%, and core inflation at 4.3%. The headline inflation was slightly revised upwards (0.3 percentage points) compared to the nowcast from September, due to the strong increase in food prices, and utility costs, primarily caused by the increase in electricity prices. • We currently estimate that inflation will gradually slow down in the short term, primarily due to the base effect. Our preliminary estimate of headline inflation in the first quarter of 2026 is 3.8%, and the core one is 3.5%. These estimates are based on the assumptions of current information from the labor market on minimum wages in 2026. • Our estimates of economic activity and inflation in the short term are still in line with those from the autumn round of medium-term macroeconomic projections.
