The spring round of medium-term macroeconomic projections in 2026 5/22/2026 Tweet The spring round of medium-term macroeconomic projections in 2026 - PDF Key messages: In this round, the CBBH revised the medium-term macroeconomic projections, primarily due to the global energy shock caused by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Strong volatility and price increases in oil and natural gas markets, accompanied by higher global supply uncertainty, have intensified inflation and cost pressures in the international and domestic environment. The inflation rate has been revised to 4.7% in 2026 as a result of higher inflation pressures from the international environment, including rising energy prices on the global market and their spill-over into domestic price growth. In addition, domestic factors, such as rising cost pressures in the services sector, rising electric energy prices, rising wages, contribute to keeping inflation at a higher level compared to previous projections. The projection for the BH economic activity growth in 2026 has been revised downwards, to the level of 1.9%, due to the weakening of domestic and external demand, which is reflected through personal consumption, investments, and imports and exports. The sharp increase of oil and natural gas prices, which has been recorded since the beginning of March this year, affects the increase of production and transport costs, which is reflected in the decline of the economic entities’ profitability and the weakening of investment activity. At the same time, higher energy costs reduce household disposable income, leading to lower private consumption. As a result, economic growth is expected to be slower than in previous projections.
