Nowcast of the Annual Change in Real GDP and Inflation in the Short Term 9/25/2023 Tweet Continuation of inflation slowdown in the third quarter of 2023 PDF - Nowcast of the Annual Change in Real GDP for the Second and Third Quarters of 2023 and Inflation in the Short Term Key notes: We nowcast the annual growth of real GDP for the second quarter at 0.8%. Despite the expected growth of activity in the service sector, especially the tourism sector, being more significant than expected slowdown in inflation, economic activity in the third quarter is expected to remain relatively muted, following an increasingly pronounced decline in demand. The preliminary nowcast of real GDP growth in the third quarter is 0.9%. We expect that inflation in the second half of the current year will be significant, but much lower compared to the first half of the year. Most of the inflationary pressures is, at the moment, consequence of the increase in domestic prices, which are not influenced by the increase in food and energy prices on the foreign market. Official statistical data for June and July indicate an unexpectedly strong slowdown in inflation, which resulted in a relatively significant revision of the estimate of core and headline inflation in the short term. In this round of inflation nowcast, we project that core inflation could be 6.0% and headline inflation 4.0% in the third quarter. The preliminary estimate of total inflation for the fourth quarter is 3.5%.
