CBBH Representatives at the Meeting on Macroeconomic Projections for the EU Candidate Countries

Within the support to the country's EU integration process, representatives of the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH), Belma Čolaković, Ph.D, Chief Economist of the CBBH, and Elma Hasanović, M.Sc, Head of the Non-Financial Analysis Section in the Office of the Chief Economist, participated in expert meeting on macroeconomic projections of the European Commission for the EU membership candidate countries. The meeting was held in Brussels on 10 October 2024. In addition to the delegation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the meeting was also attended by representatives of Albania, Montenegro, Moldova, Türkiye, Georgia, North Macedonia and Serbia.

Meetings are held twice a year, at the invitation of the Director of the European Commission's Directorate for General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN). For all the candidate countries for the European Union (EU) membership, the central banks and the state ministries of finance are invited, before publishing the spring and autumn rounds of the EC medium-term macroeconomic projections for the candidate countries. The harmonisation of the EC macroeconomic projections publication calendar is the very reason why the CBBH has shifted the process of preparing and publishing medium-term macroeconomic projections three weeks ahead of the spring round of projections from 2023, which is an exceptional effort and success, having in mind the publication calendars for domestic statistics, its availability, as well as frequent and significant revisions. We are pleased to point out that the CBBH medium-term macroeconomic projections, published on the CBBH website twice a year, are very much in line with the EC projections for BH. The latest round of the EC projections for BH is available on the European Economic Forecast. Spring 2024 (europa.eu), and the autumn one will be released on 15 November 2024.

Before a series of bilateral meetings of the EC representatives with delegations of the EU candidate countries, where model settings and assumptions, calibrations and preliminary results of projections are discussed and compared, on the day of the meeting, the EC representatives present several topics within a horizontal session. Preliminary assessments of trends in the international environment on the EU economy, and expected macroeconomic trends in the EU and the member states, in the medium term are usually presented. The third session is always focused on a specific topic, and this autumn it was the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact in the context of the key aspects of the new Economic Governance Framework. The presented information and the discussions between the representatives of the EC and the candidate countries are, at this stage, still preliminary and confidential, until the publication of the EC report in mid-November. At the bilateral meeting, special attention was devoted to the assessment of the effects of the recent floods in BH on macroeconomic projections in the period 2024-2026.  

The country’s EU integration process is a high priority of the CBBH, which is best shown by the fact that the activities related to this area are included in the CBBH strategic objectives. The process of preparing medium-term macroeconomic projections and nowcasts, as well as all other related applied research of interest to the CBBH are highly harmonized with the calendar of reporting to the EC, the country's obligations in the EU integration process, which fall in the scope of central banks activities, and the expected central banks roles in the Eurosystem. Finally, we emphasize a very professional and pleasant cooperation with colleagues from the EC, especially DG ECFIN, the body that represents the interests of the country, towards the member states, in the EU integration process.